"Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Seriously. As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. Not a bad streak. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. In communities . Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. The matters that way on their minds are real. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It gets a lot more interesting. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. (Go to the bottom of the page. Twitter Twitter What, if anything, did we miss? In 2020, a single. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? It's the wrong question. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Trump gave them hope. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. 2023 BBC. 9. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. (Sorry, not sorry.) Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. 108,000 people. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. 03:30. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Trump won 18 of the 19. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. hide caption. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Dont simply gloss over this. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Do you know this baby? All rights reserved. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. We believe this was a mistake. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Read about our approach to external linking. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Jeff. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. ET. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. i.e. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. What science tells us about the afterlife. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Will That Last?]. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Republicans have paid some attention. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. 2. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. University of Denver, 2. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. (i.e. Until this year. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. Not anymore. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Contributors wanted In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. The divisions were everywhere. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Just how big is it? "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Sumter County, . Watauga has gone for. "They followed through the whole four years. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction.
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