This team just wasn't ready yet. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? Super Bowl V. Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. For the 2021 version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. Dilfer bounced around many teams in his career, but he was lucky enough to helm the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl victory on the strength of their history-making defense. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. This should have been a great game. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. Super Bowl The game was won with Ben Roethlisbergers perfect pass to Santonio Holmes, who somehow got two feet down in the back of the end zone. A year before perfection. and a dramatic finish. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. 32. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). 14. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? The Cowboys first Super Bowl win was a snooze-fest. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. By Jason McIntyreFOX Sports Betting Analyst. You have a few precious hours left to scout rosters, analyze schedules, weigh injuries and place your futures bets on who is going to win Super Bowl 56. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. Jalen Hurts will not pull a 6. Buffalo actually led going into halftime before being outscored 21-0 in the second half. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. More NFL coverage . According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst They're the fifth-best team in football and have the fourth-best chance to win it all with a 6% shot, according to FPI. New York Giants +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The market doesnt like the Giants, but they were 9-5 ATS as an underdog last year. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. If the Saints slip a bit, there's a spot open for the Panthers to take a leap in 2021. All rights reserved. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. All Rights Reserved. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Cleveland hasn't been in a position to win a Super Bowl since Bernie Kosar led the franchise to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the mid-1980s. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. Allowed 173 yards per game on the ground lmao this1dude88 Chiefs 4 yr. ago That defense became dominant Just how goofy was this game? A special season in Tennessee could be in store. The game itself may not be memorable but Marcus Allens 191-yard performance, which included the greatest run in Super Bowl history, pushes it into the top-30. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. New York had to scrap its way to the Super Bowl. Give them five years to become a dynasty. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). Denver Broncos +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Yes, this is irrationally high. A smart strategy? The game that confirmed Joe Flacco was elite. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. 10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. Rookie head coaches and rookie quarterbacks don't typically generate Super Bowl contenders. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. Putting that unbelievable anecdote aside, the 49ers stumbled into the Super Bowl against the Cincinnati Bengals, and Montana did what Montana seemingly always did. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And thats at every position. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. 5h. 1 pick. A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. Who are the worst coaches to win An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. Every NFL team's 2021 Super Bowl odds, ranked from worst to An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. People think of Kerry Collins when they think of this 124 Giants squad, but this defense was the real story. The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens. Baltimore Ravens +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total), The best team in the rugged AFC North, but the least talked about. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Seriously, I get the Super Bowl is one of the worst in history, but this team was really great with an underappreciated defense. Don't sleep on the rest of the league, of course. 22. They had a top 5 offense and defense. 13. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense and worst defense in the league. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. worst Super And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. Discover unique things to do, places to eat, and sights to see in the best destinations around the world with Bring Me! Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. Terrell Davis three-touchdown game won him MVP honors. 17. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side. Including the next one. Gruden did bring the Raiders back from almost a decade of ineptness and he did win a Super Bowl against the Raiders, but the rest of his career he was pretty much a .500 coach. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. Teams that barely squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card berth have become frequent commodities on this list, so it only feels appropriate to include the first wild-card team to ever win the Super Bowl. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. 10. Forget about Super Bowl history, this was one of the best games in the history of American sports. And we'll start with the Chiefs: More: Head coach Bill Cowher would get Super Bowl redemption the next decade, but this 115 team was pretty great all around. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. It is not that these teams were not deserving of a Super Bowl, but rather that they do not stack up when compared to the greatest units the NFL has ever seen. worst A solid team all around, but more importantly, proficient on offense and defense. The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. This contest was more important than nearly any other as it asserted the AFL's legitimacy as a league and proved it could contend with the NFL year in and year out. A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. They had one of the league's best defenses that year. Tennessee Titans +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total), Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but Im leery of taking the bait. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Arizona has the potential to shock the NFL and win 11-plus games, emerging victorious in a strong NFC West. The 2007 New England Patriots won every game (160) and did so in tremendous fashion. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? Green Bay looked as if it would blow the Steelers out but Ben Roethlisberger led a rally that cut the lead from 18 to three before Mason Crosby put the game away with a field goal. Thats NFL history. Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. Reggie White was downright unblockable. 51. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. The Cardinals defense significantly improved with the addition of J.J. Watt and the return of Chandler Jones on the pass rush. Worst Chiefs Combine Crash-Course: Watching What Matters Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more, FOX SPORTS, SPEED, SPEED.COM & 2023 Fox Media LLC and Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. 14. There's talent on the Falcons, but they are such an unknown heading into 2021. This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. It's what helps people grow. Maybe the biggest forgotten gem in sports history. When Indianapolis traded for Wentz, the organization bet on a bounce-back year from the former Eagles quarterback. There's enough depth to get by. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. The Chiefs win Dallas got out to an early 10-point lead and never looked back. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. It did earn him a bunch of money. The Jaguars are going to be better than the 1-15 team that played last year, and could actually contend for eight or nine wins if the defense becomes a top 20 unit (ranked 31st in points and yards allowed in 2020). The Tennessee Titans are one of 12 teams in the NFL to have never won a Super Bowl, and according to one writer, they are the furthest away from doing so of those dozen teams. With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. Pittsburgh sent six men to the Pro Bowl, went a decent 10-3-1 in the regular season and, of course, won the Lombardi Trophy. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. Kind of. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job. Instead, Baltimore is here due to how poorly it played in its Super Bowl win. This team is starting to scratch the surface of its potential. Bradshaw would go on to complete just 67 passes for 785 yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in his limited action. Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. Philadelphia Eagles +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. Jets, vs. Eagles, vs. Lions, vs. Bengals and a home-and-home with the Raiders. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. Matt Rhule is a coach whose stock Im buying low.. With that criteria in mind, weve ranked every Super Bowl ever played from worst to first. The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. Worst NFL Players To Win New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/2019-super-bowl-rankings-best-to-worst, a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs, Anthony Richardson showed off his freakish athleticism by breaking 2 NFL Combine records, Joey Porter Jr. shared a wholesome moment with dad Joey Porter at 2023 NFL Combine, Will Levis finally shared the origin story for his mayo coffee, How to watch the NFL Combine, live stream, TV channel, Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends, Bryce Young's measurements at the NFL Combine are almost identical to Kyler Murray's, C.J. They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Those numbers are buoyed by two factors: FPI projects them to have the best defense in the league. Drafting Ja'Marr Chase over Penei Sewell was a questionable move, especially since Cincinnati's atrocious offensive line led to franchise quarterback Joe Burrow tearing his ACL in his rookie season. The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. worst When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. This Baltimore Colts was coached by Don Shula and averaged 28.7 points per game in the '60s. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. FPI thinks they take another step forward this season. XFL Week 3 preview: Can AJ McCarron, Battlehawks continue their fourth-quarter heroics? One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the teams final seven games. And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). Bart Starr won MVP with only 13 completions. Super Bowl Theres a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and its the schedule. Those numbers should improve under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the Panthers will find out if Darnold can become a franchise quarterback. Trent Dilfer. Ron Jaworski, Harold Carmichael, and Wilbert Montgomery all had a part in this offense. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? The Rams are firmly in the mix this year. QB | RB | WR | TE The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. Ken Anderson led his team to 124. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. Burrow should be ready by Week 1, and has an impressive cast of receivers that will make the Bengals passing game even more lethal in 2021. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs.. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. So much needs to go right for the Broncos to get into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. A step up from the traditional method is to look at the mean win total for every team's opponents, but this too has an issue; for instance, every Chiefs opponent's win total is depressed because it has to play the Chiefs (division opponents doubly so! 1: 3: 17: 313: 305: 40.0: Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! Slightly. Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. They went 3-0.. 29 and 30. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. However, these NFL teams should not be tossed aside because they lost the Super Bowl. Here are our picks for the 10 worst Super Bowls Ever | Miami Herald What makes a great Super Bowl? A 142 record with the seventh best defense in points scored against in the league. Cleveland already has one of the game's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and cornerbacks in Denzel Ward. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these, place your futures bets on who is going to win, Every NFL team's 2021 win totals, ranked from worst to best bet. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. So their overall grade suffered. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. It was easily the sloppiest Super Bowl of all-time. Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. Boomer Esiason and the Bengals were the most productive offense in 1988. 29. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions.
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